Climate shocks are escalating in frequency and severity, and governments are under pressure to protect people with limited fiscal space. Social protection systems are already a core delivery platform in many countries, but they are still too often used after a crisis hits.
This Community Conversation will share new evidence from the Anticipatory Social Protection Index for Resilience (ASPIRE) work that makes the case for shifting from reactive response to anticipatory action through social protection, combining (1) anticipatory direct benefit transfers (DBTs) triggered by forecasts, and (2) early resilience building investments delivered through existing programmes. The ASPIRE economic assessment across eight countries and 36 social protection programmes shows that anticipatory action delivers higher returns and reduces losses at far lower cost than post disaster response (for example, early resilience investments can generate benefit–cost ratios above five, while anticipatory DBTs more than double returns compared to later humanitarian response).
We will then move from ‘why’ to ‘how’: what the ASPIRE readiness assessments tell us about the policy, systems, programme design and delivery changes needed to make anticipatory social protection work at scale, including stronger links between early warning, financing, registries, and last mile delivery.
The final part of the conversation will invite participants to reflect on what has shifted since COP30 on anticipatory action and EWEA, and how this agenda connects to the IPCC’s 7th cycle (WG II) focus on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation pathways. We will explore how grassroots and national partners can contribute towards shaping the evidence, particularly in terms of practical options and enabling conditions for implementation.
This will be an interactive session, with time for questions and participant reflections.
This event is co-hosted by the Anticipation Hub and International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)
Speaker
Ritu Bharadwaj (IIED / ALL ACT) Director, Climate Resilience, Finance and Loss & Damage/ Alliance for Locally Led Action on Loss and Damage (ALL ACT), International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)
