🌍 NECJOGHA Daily Climate News Update
🌐 IGAD Region
GHACOF 73: Below-Normal Rainfall Forecast for Northern Greater Horn of Africa, June–September 2026
The 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 73), convened by ICPAC in Addis Ababa, has issued a regional climate forecast showing a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall during the June–September 2026 season — the main rainy season for much of the northern Horn. Countries most at risk include South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, and parts of western and coastal Kenya, with probabilities of below-normal rainfall exceeding 80% in northeastern Ethiopia. Temperature forecasts indicate warmer-than-usual conditions across almost all of the region, resembling analogue years of 1997 and 2023 during strong El Niño events.
IGAD Launches RECOVER-HORN Regional Climate Resilience Programme Consultations
IGAD, through its Agriculture and Environment Division and ICPAC, convened a three-day regional consultative meeting in Djibouti to develop the RECOVER-HORN Regional Climate Resilience Programme. The programme focuses on four pillars: climate information and early warning, integrated natural resource management, livelihood recovery, and institutional coordination. Member states are being engaged to design bankable projects that address droughts, floods, land degradation, and food insecurity across the Horn.
Horn of Africa Regional Validation Workshop on Climate, Peace and Security Concludes in Kenya
IGAD member state representatives, international partners, and civil society gathered in Kwale County, Kenya, for the Horn of Africa Regional Validation Workshop on Climate, Peace and Security. The workshop validated a regional framework linking climate change to peace and conflict risks, a growing intersection as droughts and floods increasingly drive displacement and resource competition across borders. Outputs are expected to inform IGAD’s climate diplomacy agenda ahead of COP31.
IGAD Youth Climate Change Coalition Network Formally Launched
IGAD has unveiled its regional Climate Change Coalition Network at a high-level forum, signalling a strategic shift toward structured youth engagement in climate governance across the Horn of Africa. IGAD Youth Envoy Sam Ogwal described the coalition as a move from scattered initiatives to a unified regional mechanism designed to amplify youth-led impact. Key priorities include strengthening access to climate data, promoting climate-resilient agriculture, and green entrepreneurship.
🔥 Drought
Somalia: Four Consecutive Failed Rainy Seasons Deepen National Drought Emergency
Following four consecutive failed rainy seasons, Somalia’s federal government declared a national drought emergency in November 2025. Over 6.5 million people — approximately one in four Somalis — now face high levels of acute food insecurity, with more than two million classified under IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Livestock losses are devastating pastoralist communities, as illustrated by a herder in Mudug who lost 150 of his 250 goats.
Child Wasting Surpasses Emergency Thresholds in Ethiopia’s Somali Region Amid Funding Cuts
In Ethiopia’s Somali region, child wasting rates have surpassed emergency thresholds, with more than 15% of children affected. The crisis is compounded by severe cuts to funding for treatment and health services. FEWS NET predicts parts of Ethiopia could reach IPC Phase 4 in the first half of 2026, putting millions at risk of acute starvation without urgent intervention.
Water Prices Spike 2,000% in Worst-Hit Arid Counties as Kenya Drought Deepens
Oxfam reports that water prices have risen by up to 2,000% in the most severely drought-hit areas of Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Arid and semi-arid communities in Kenya are reporting significantly reduced harvests while livestock — the backbone of pastoralist economies — are dying as water and grazing lands dry up. Kenya’s IPC hunger levels are expected to rise further following the failure of short rains.
EU Joint Research Centre: Severe Drought Conditions Persist Across Eastern Africa Since September 2025
The EU JRC’s Global Drought Observatory reports that drought conditions intensified across Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, and eastern Kenya from September 2025, driven by scarce rainfall and temperatures exceeding 2°C above the 1991–2020 average. Soil moisture in early January 2026 was critically below normal across southeastern Ethiopia, southern and northern Somalia, and eastern Kenya, with significant crop failures and yield losses projected to continue through mid-2026.
🌊 Floods
ICPAC Weekly Forecast: Flooding Risk in Western Ethiopia, Northern Somalia, and South Sudan (26 May–2 June 2026)
ICPAC’s latest weekly forecast warned that western and northeastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and parts of South Sudan faced elevated risk of flooding incidences during the late May–early June window. Communities in high-risk areas were urged to take precautionary measures. Elevated heat stress classified under the “Extreme Caution” category was simultaneously flagged for South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and eastern Kenya, indicating a compound risk of both flooding in some zones and severe heat in others.
Floods Warning Issued for Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, and Burundi for March–May 2026 Season
Following GHACOF 72, ICPAC issued a floods warning indicating a 45% probability of wetter-than-normal rainfall across Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central-to-western Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and northern Somalia for the March–May 2026 season. The warning prompted humanitarian and development actors to begin pre-positioning supplies and activating early warning systems across at-risk communities. Warmer-than-average temperatures were simultaneously forecast for Sudan, Djibouti, and parts of Tanzania.
🆘 Famines
UN Agencies Issue Urgent Warning: Famine Risk Emerges in Southwest Somalia for First Time Since 2022
FAO, WFP, UNICEF, and OCHA have jointly warned of a famine risk in the Burhakaba district of Bay region in southwest Somalia, where nearly 40% of children under five are already acutely malnourished. The joint statement projects that 6 million Somalis — 31% of the population — face critical food insecurity between April and June 2026, with 1.9 million in Emergency conditions (IPC Phase 4), a number that has tripled in under a year. Famine could materialise if the current Gu season rains fail, food prices keep rising, and humanitarian assistance is not urgently scaled up. This is the first famine risk analysis since the near-famine of 2022, which was averted through massive humanitarian intervention.
Conflict-Fuelled Famine Conditions Persist in Sudan; Yale Research Exposes Systematic Destruction of Farming Communities
Sudan remains among the world’s most severe hunger hotspots, driven by ongoing conflict alongside climate pressures. Research by Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab identified 41 farming communities in North Darfur attacked between March and June 2024, with systematic destruction of livestock enclosures and agrarian villages that served as critical food sources for El Fasher. At least 132,000 Sudanese children face acute malnutrition up to July 2026. Restricted humanitarian access and blockades continue to compound the crisis, leaving aid agencies unable to reach the most vulnerable populations.
🤝 Humanitarian Stories
Humanitarian Funding Crisis Deepens: Somalia’s 2026 Response Plan Only 13.4% Funded
As humanitarian needs in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya have surged to unprecedented levels, funding has simultaneously collapsed. Somalia’s 2026 Humanitarian Response Plan has secured only 13.4% of required funds — compared to 29% for the 2025 plan. Humanitarian assistance in Somalia dropped by 27% in January 2026 compared to the previous year. Oxfam warns that without urgent and scaled-up funding, communities at the front line of the climate crisis — who have contributed almost nothing to global emissions — may be pushed beyond the point of recovery.
Sudan and South Sudan Ranked Among the World’s Highest-Concern Hunger Hotspots for 2026
Sudan and South Sudan are ranked among the highest-concern hunger hotspots globally for 2026, alongside the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Haiti, and Yemen. In South Sudan, ongoing conflict and below-normal rainfall forecasts for June–September 2026 threaten to reverse fragile gains in food security. In Sudan, the intersection of war and climate stress has created conditions where multiple famine pockets are developing simultaneously across different states.
🌾 Agriculture
Somalia Records Lowest Seasonal Crop Harvest in 30 Years as Drought Enters Fifth Year
WFP reports that Somalia is experiencing its lowest seasonal crop harvest in 30 years, with most regions having endured three failed rainy seasons. Drought conditions remain widespread and are not expected to lead to major food security improvements even with the onset of the Gu season rains. A total of 1.84 million children are projected to suffer from acute malnutrition in 2026, reflecting the deep linkage between crop failure and nutritional collapse.
GHACOF 73 Warns of Rainfed Agriculture Risk Across Northern Horn for June–September 2026
The GHACOF 73 seasonal outlook highlights severe implications for rain-fed agriculture across South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti, where the June–September season accounts for over 50% of annual rainfall and up to 80% in Sudan. Crop planting decisions, irrigation planning, and livestock management will need to be adjusted urgently given the high probability of below-normal rains. ICPAC and national meteorological services are urging governments to activate sectoral contingency plans immediately.
🏥 Health
493,000 Somali Children Face Severe Acute Malnutrition — Among Worst Crises in the World
UNICEF warns that approximately 1.9 million Somali children currently face acute malnutrition, of whom 493,000 suffer from severe acute malnutrition — a condition that makes children 12 times more likely to die than well-nourished peers. The malnutrition crisis is driven by prolonged drought, collapse of livelihoods, rising food prices, and critically underfunded health and nutrition services. An estimated 1.84 million children under five will require acute malnutrition treatment throughout 2026.
GHACOF 73: Below-Normal Rains to Increase Malaria and Water-Borne Disease Risks Across Horn
The GHACOF 73 outlook explicitly flags public health preparedness as a priority concern for June–September 2026, noting that seasonal rainfall forecasts are critical for planning health campaigns against malaria and water-borne diseases. Below-normal rains combined with hotter temperatures can affect disease vector distributions and water quality, making the seasonal climate forecast a key input for national health authorities. Ministries of Health across the region have been called upon to activate climate-informed health preparedness plans.
🌡️ Climate Change
2026 Climate Conditions in Greater Horn Resemble 1997 and 2023 El Niño Years — ICPAC
ICPAC scientists have identified that the evolving 2026 climate conditions closely resemble the strong El Niño analogue years of 1997 and 2023, during which below-normal rainfall affected Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya. The temperature outlook for 2026 points to a dominant warmer-than-usual season, with very low chances of below-normal temperatures anywhere across the region. Scientists caution that climate change is amplifying the baseline severity of El Niño events, making each cycle progressively more damaging for vulnerable communities.
World Environment Day 2026: Uganda Urged to Accelerate NDC Implementation as Climate Impacts Mount
On World Environment Day 2026, themed “Inspired by Nature,” Uganda’s Climate Change Department called for accelerated NDC implementation as scientific evidence shows increasingly severe climate impacts on Mount Elgon’s mountain ecosystems, lowlands, and aquatic systems. The UK Government, through UNDP, has supported Uganda in updating its national climate ambition since COP26. Uganda’s Acting Commissioner for Climate Change, Bob Natifu, emphasised that NDC implementation plans and financing mechanisms are now critical for addressing tomorrow’s climate challenges.
🌿 Environment
GHA Among World’s Most Vulnerable Regions as Droughts and Floods Intensify: ICPAC Atlas
ICPAC’s Greater Horn of Africa Climate and Food Security Atlas documents the region as one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable, characterised by highly variable and erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and increasing frequency of droughts and floods. The Atlas notes that climate change has resulted in increased livestock and crop diseases, land degradation, reduced crop production, and greater livestock mortality — all threatening the rain-fed agricultural economies on which most of the population depends.
⚡ Anticipatory Action
EU Funds €4M Multi-Agency Anticipatory Action Project for Greater Horn; 450,000 Vulnerable People to Benefit
A consortium of DRC, FAO, IFRC, ICPAC, and WFP is implementing a €4 million EU-funded anticipatory action project targeting 450,000 vulnerable people in Ethiopia and Somalia. The project strengthens the capacity of national weather agencies to provide earlier climate warnings and supports the implementation of IGAD’s Regional Roadmap for Anticipatory Action. An additional €2.7 million has been contributed by the implementing partners themselves, reflecting the urgency of the scale-up needed to prevent climate extremes from tipping into full-blown crises.
🌱 Youth Climate Opportunities
CALL FOR APPLICATIONS: IGAD Regional Youth Coalition on Climate and Climate-Resilient Agri-food Systems
ICPAC, supported by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), has opened applications for the IGAD Regional Youth Coalition on Climate and Climate-Resilient Agri-food Systems. The initiative supports youth-led organisations working on climate solutions across the IGAD region, addressing barriers including limited access to climate data, funding, and mentorship. Young innovators, advocates, and entrepreneurs in sustainable agriculture across all 11 IGAD member states are encouraged to apply.
🌳 Tree Planting
Kenya’s 15-Billion-Tree Campaign: Progress Questioned as Survival Tracking Gaps Emerge
Kenya’s ambitious 15-billion-tree campaign, launched by President Ruto in December 2022 to restore 10.6 million hectares and raise forest cover to 30% by 2032, is facing questions about real progress. Investigations reveal systemic gaps in survival tracking and verification, with the number of seedlings established on the ground falling far short of targets. Environmental advocates and the Kenya Forest Service have called for stronger monitoring systems and accountability mechanisms to ensure planted trees actually survive.
Meru County Tree Planting Exercise: State Department Joins Push Towards 15 Billion Tree Goal
Principal Secretary Dr. Caroline Karugu joined Meru County residents in a tree planting exercise supporting Kenya’s national 15-billion-tree campaign. The event brought together local leaders, community members, and government staff in a demonstration of collective climate action. Community members emphasised that tree planting protects water catchment areas, improves biodiversity, and creates healthier environments for future generations.
KCCA and My Tree Initiative Launch 3,000-Tree Community Campaign Across Uganda
Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) and the My Tree Initiative have launched a campaign to plant at least 3,000 trees in communities across Uganda, beginning at Atlas High School. The initiative aims to combat environmental degradation, improve air quality, conserve biodiversity, and raise awareness about climate change. Organisers positioned tree planting as one of the most community-accessible tools for local climate action.
📋 Climate Policies
Kenya’s Agricultural Emission Reduction Strategy Falls Short as Livestock Methane Continues Rising
Climate Action Tracker’s latest assessment of Kenya’s climate policies finds that the country’s Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) Strategy has not delivered its targeted reductions. Agricultural emissions reached 36 MtCO2e in 2024 against a BAU scenario target of 32.2 MtCO2e in 2026, driven primarily by rising enteric methane from livestock. Priority mitigation actions include agroforestry and sustainable land management, while Kenya has made some progress on landfill methane capture in Nairobi’s Dandora dump and a gradual shift toward circular waste management.
📜 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
Uganda Strengthens NDC Implementation Plans with UK-UNDP Support Ahead of COP31
Uganda’s Climate Change Department has underlined the centrality of NDC implementation financing to the country’s climate adaptation and mitigation agenda. With support from the UK Government through UNDP since COP26, Uganda has updated and published its NDC, and is now focused on developing concrete implementation plans and mobilising finance. UNDP Uganda noted that World Environment Day 2026 provided an opportunity to recommit to these NDC financing mechanisms as the country’s climate impacts escalate.
💧 Water
GHACOF 73 Flags Critical Water Supply Risks as Below-Normal Rainfall Forecast Threatens Hydropower and WASH
The GHACOF 73 seasonal forecast highlights severe risks to water supply systems, hydropower generation, and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) infrastructure across the northern Greater Horn if the below-normal rainfall forecast materialises. For countries like Ethiopia — where hydropower accounts for the majority of electricity — a dry June–September season would have cascading economic consequences. Water resource managers and utilities across South Sudan, Uganda, Sudan, and Ethiopia have been urged to begin contingency planning immediately.
$7M CREWS East Africa Project Launched to Strengthen Hydrometeorological Services Across Six Countries
Representatives from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and National Disaster Management Offices of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda launched the US$7 million Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) East Africa project. Jointly implemented by WMO, UNDRR, and the World Bank, the project is designed to support the UN’s “Early Warnings for All” initiative and strengthen hydrometeorological services critical for flood and drought preparedness. The project is now in its operational implementation phase as of 2026.
📡 Journalists Training
African Journalism Education Network (AJEN) Annual Round Table Coming to Mauritius — August 2026
The 2026 edition of AJEN’s annual round table will be held in Mauritius from 12–14 August 2026, open to members and non-members. The event offers journalism educators and practitioners opportunities to engage with industry leaders on critical issues including environmental and climate reporting. A parallel initiative coordinated by the University of Mauritius with UNESCO support is reshaping how Indian Ocean region journalists — including from Djibouti — cover climate stories, moving beyond reactive coverage to deeper analytical journalism.
CJID Climate-Agricultural Reporting Training 2026: Journalists and Editors Invited to Apply
The Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID), under its Agricultural Reporting and Climate Change Project, is offering a two-day virtual training and story lab on climate–agricultural reporting. The training focuses on accurate, data-driven, and solutions-oriented coverage of floods, droughts, desertification, pest outbreaks, and food price volatility. Female journalists and persons with disabilities are strongly encouraged to apply. Successful applicants commit to producing and publishing stories within an agreed timeline.
🎯 Journalists Opportunities
MESHA Climate Change Media Fellowship 2026: Paid Fellowship for African Journalists (Applications Closed — Watch for 2027 Cycle)
The MESHA Climate Change Media Fellowship 2026 selected eight journalists (at least 50% women) for the ARECCCA action research project cycle 2026–2027. Fellows receive story grants, mentorship, structured engagement forums, and capacity-building while contributing to high-quality climate journalism across Eastern and Southern Africa. Journalists interested in the 2027 cycle are encouraged to contact the MESHA Secretariat at info@meshascience.org to register their interest early.
Africa Climate Academy 2026: Fully Funded Training for Media Professionals (Accra, Ghana — May 2026)
The Africa Climate Academy 2026, held in Accra, Ghana, brought together policymakers, media professionals, civil society leaders, and academics from across the continent for five days of intensive training on climate governance and sustainable energy. The fully funded programme — covering airfare and accommodation — focused on renewable energy policy, climate governance, and fossil fuel reduction strategies. Journalists based in the Greater Horn of Africa are encouraged to monitor the Africa Centre for Energy Policy’s website for the 2027 edition.
CIJ Climate Investigations Training Scholarship 2026: Fully Funded for Global South Journalists (Programme Underway)
The Centre for Investigative Journalism (CIJ) awarded scholarships to 10 journalists from the Global South — including Africa — for its 2026 Climate Investigations Training, valued at up to £2,638 per participant and delivered fully online. The programme trains journalists in OSINT (open-source intelligence), climate data analysis, and investigative storytelling techniques for climate justice. The 2026 cohort has now concluded training; journalists across East Africa are encouraged to apply for the next cohort when CIJ opens applications later in 2026.
