IGAD Report Highlights Climate Change as a “Threat Multiplier” in the Horn of Africa

ADDIS ABABA—A new report from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) warns that climate change is acting as a “threat multiplier” in the Horn of Africa, exacerbating existing challenges and posing a serious risk to regional peace and security.

The report, titled “Report on State of Climate, Peace and Security in the Horn of Africa,” was published in November 2022 and was prepared with significant input from IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) and the Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN).

Key Climate and Security Risks

The report highlights that the IGAD region is facing an increase in the

frequency and severity of climate extremes, such as droughts, prolonged dry spells, floods, and heat waves. These climatic events directly impact key sectors like agriculture, water, health, and energy, threatening human livelihoods and contributing to food and water insecurity. The IGAD region is predominantly reliant on pastoralism and rainfed agriculture, with approximately 70% of the population depending on the latter.

The report notes a direct link between climate change and

food insecurity. In 2021, an estimated 43.59 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity in seven of the eight IGAD member states, a 38% increase from 2020. This figure was projected to rise to over 46 million people in 2022, largely due to a severe, ongoing drought. Droughts and floods also disrupt livelihoods, damage infrastructure, and can lead to increased food prices, reducing the purchasing power of vulnerable populations.

Pathways to Conflict

The study outlines four key pathways that explain the interlinkages between climate and security:

1. Threats to Food and Water Security: Climate extremes and environmental degradation can lead to food and water insecurity, making it difficult for vulnerable populations to escape poverty. The loss of livestock and decreased agricultural productivity due to drought can drive youth away from traditional livelihoods like pastoralism, potentially making them more vulnerable to radicalization.
2. Climate-Induced Mobility: Climate extremes directly cause population movement. Floods and droughts force people to relocate in search of water and pasture, which can trigger tensions with host communities due to competition over limited natural resources. The number of displaced persons and refugees in the region has nearly tripled since 2012, largely due to conflicts and natural disasters.
3. Historical Grievances and Cultural Practices: Climate extremes can exacerbate historical grievances and mistrust between communities, particularly regarding shared natural resources. For example, droughts and floods can increase the need to restock lost cattle, which may escalate practices like cattle rustling and raiding into wider conflicts.
4. Governance and Fragility: In regions with weak governance, climate variability and change can amplify conflict drivers. The report states that extremist and other groups can exploit climate crises to provide aid and strengthen their influence, particularly where governance is weak and essential services are limited.

Recommendations and a Call to Action

The report emphasizes the urgent need for a

regional response to climate and environmental security. It recommends strengthening the shared understanding of the climate-peace-security nexus, improving coordination among IGAD member states and partners, and developing a common regional position on the issue.

Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu, IGAD Executive Secretary, stressed that climate change must be integrated into the security sector as a matter of national and regional peace and security. “We are dealing with scientific facts, not politics. And the facts are clear. Climate change is a direct threat in itself and a multiplier of many other threats,” he said.

This report covers the cyclic nature of climate and environmental impact and conflict and describes four pathways explaining the main interlinkages between climate and security as perceived by IGAD Member States. The report highlights the need for research investment to better understand the context of specific drivers at the various hotspots.